Thursday, May 31, 2018

Homequant Offers BOGO Residential AVM and Sales Ratio Study

Tampa Housing Market Resumes Upswing after a Healthy Consolidation

(Click on the image to enlarge)

As expected, the primary Monthly Median Sale Price trend has been very volatile - sharp rise, fall and reversal in a year or so. Of course, the 2-Mo Moving Average trendline (blue) rejects the linear drop as well as the exponential reversal. The good news is, the market managed to shrug off the decline and resumed the upswing. The bad news is, it all happened without a sideways consolidation.

The normalized Sale Price per SF trend (bottom chart) is however all-good, even negating the bad news of the primary trend. It has all the qualities of a good market - nice 45 degree growth, followed by an extended range-bound ($132 to $136) sideways and a welcome uptick. The 2-Mo MA trendline (blue) somewhat moderates the final uptick. 

Of course, we have to wait and see how Tampa negotiates the rising rate environment as it is a FHA and GSE market, by and large.
   
Note: This analysis covers the City of Tampa, not the entire Hillsborough County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

A Good Property Assessment System Allows Easy Comparison of County vs. Town Ratios

COUNTYWIDE SALES RATIO - CLICK TO ENLARGE
FAIRLY-ASSESSED TOWN - CLICK TO ENLARGE
OVER-ASSESSED TOWN - CLICK TO ENLARGE
UNDER-ASSESSED TOWN - CLICK TO ENLARGE
Sales Ratio (County Market Value to Adjusted Sales Price) is a better indicator of the proper assessment level than the Assessment Ratio (County Assessed Value to Adjusted Sales), as the latter often includes Town-wise special assessment, abatement, exemption, etc. 

All sales therefore must be adjusted to the taxable status date so the two values (county market value vs. sales) are comparable and the resulting ratios are statistically significant. 

In this example, since the Countywide Median Sales Ratio is .778, all Towns in that County must be valued at or close to this ratio so that the Assessment Roll becomes fair and equitable. Better yet, compare the 25th to 75th percentile of the ratio curve. If the sales are individually validated for ratio eligibility (ours are not), a much wider range – say, 5th to 95th - could be considered.

The Fairly-Assessed Town has a very similar median ratio of .768, along with the 25th-to-75th expanse of the curve.

The Over-Assessed Town however shows a significantly higher Median Sales Ratio (.877), including the short end of the curve. The lower-value homes are generally over-assessed.

The Under-Assessed Town, on the other hand, shows a much lower Median Sales Ratio (.715), including the long end of the curve. The higher-value homes are generally under-assessed.

In order to introduce statistical validation of sales, AVM Ratios (AVM Value to ASP)  may be used to identify the irrational clusters on the curve, thus narrowing the universe of sales down to a more manageable pool requiring individual validation. It's imprudent to assign equal weights to the entire validation curve.  

While this is the Town-wise summary of ratios, in a separate Blog post we will further drill down to the areas in the Town - spatially - where the incidence of over and under assessments could be more severe. 

I picked the above tables from TownAnalyst.com as I own and operate it, to avoid having to deal with any copyright issues. My TownAnalyst site is totally free (no strings) and requires no login or registration whatsoever. Please use the assessment evaluation system that works best for you.

Seattle Housing Market Makes New All-Time High

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The Seattle housing market has routinely been making new highs, confirming it's on fire. The median has reached a whopping all-time high of $750K. Of course, the 2-month Moving Average trendline confirms that the two end data points (Jan-17 and Feb-18) are outliers; nonetheless, the growth has been stellar. 

The normalized trend (bottom chart) is more or less conforming, albeit with an extended sideways consolidation. The 2-month MA trendline validates the primary in that the two outer data points are truly outliers, thus negating any YoY (seasonally-adjusted) analysis. Again, the fact that the SPSF has skyrocketed at least $100 in a year is simply astounding.

Note: This analysis covers the City of Seattle, not the entire King County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com


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Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Portland Housing Market Resumes Upswing after Consolidation

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Though the Portland housing market weakened in second half of 2017 (decelerated from $415K to $375K), the early indications of 2018 are promising, sharply reversing the downward spiral after having formed a soft bottom. Even the trendline shows a much flatter curve followed by a slight uptick.

The normalized trend (bottom chart) portrays a fairly different picture: the trend was sideways until November, subsequently mimicking the primary. The trendline confirms the recent uptick, obviously not to the extent the data point suggests. The strong sideways coupled with rapid reversal could pave the way for a stellar summer.

Note: This analysis covers the City of Portland, not the entire Multnomah County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

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Monday, May 28, 2018

Las Vegas Housing Market Shows Renewed Growth Possibilities

(Click on the image to enlarge)
After reaching a peak median price of $265K in August 2017, the Las Vegas housing market started trending down, however reversing sharply in February 2018. If this new trend continues, it would be very bullish with new expected highs in coming months. Of course, the sideways or downside possibilities loom as well. Alternatively, a good backward-bending consolidation could lead to a new bullish trend. Both trendlines are confirming the rise as well as the fall.

The normalized trend (bottom chart) is drastically different. It exhibits a near-perfect linear growth trend, reflecting robust market internals. The perfect angle of the growth curve (as evidenced by a high r-squared of 0.976) suggests that this trend could continue for a while. Both trendlines are in tandem with the data trend, confirming the bullish internals.

Note: This analysis covers the City of Las Vegas, not the entire Clark County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com


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Sunday, May 27, 2018

Charlotte Housing Market Shows Green Shoots after a Sharp Drop

(Click on the image to enlarge)
The Charlotte housing market has started to turn around after a short and sharp decline. Obviously, the sharp decline in October (#10) was one-off (could be weather-related, aftermath of the two major storms). In fact, both trendlines, including the 2-month Moving Average, ignore (smooth out) the large drop.

The normalized Price per SF chart (bottom) more or less mimics the primary trend. A similar October drop proves that the decline was anything but size-related. Of course, the trendline meaningfully smoothes out the drop followed by the sharp v-shaped recovery, though backing the continued upswing. 

Again, the Monthly Median Sale Price trend must be studied alongside the normalized Monthly Median Price per SF, as the latter works as a meaningful validation tool. If the latter diverges from the former, any possible general shift in sizes must be investigated (i.e., if the buyers are switching to smaller or larger homes, leading to a structural shift in demand). 

Note: This analysis covers the City of Charlotte, not the entire Mecklenburg County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com
       

Saturday, May 26, 2018

Bergen County, NJ Housing Market in Downward Spiral

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Median Sale Prices rose from $410K to $475K (the trendline suggests the July peak of $500K was an outlier) in mere six months. Obviously, this meteoric rise was not sustainable as it was not backed by reciprocated strengthening of fundamentals. Conversely, the trendline is also suggesting that the abrupt retreat to $410K was an aberration too ($425K is statistically more significant).

The normalized SPSF trend (bottom chart) amply confirms the primary trend, with very similar peak and trough outliers. Neither trend shows any emerging support, bottom formation or sideways consolidations yet, signifying clear and present downside risks.

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

Friday, May 25, 2018

Minneapolis Housing Market Bottoms, Moves Sideways



(Click on the image to enlarge)
The Minneapolis housing market was almost parabolic in 2017, meaning sharp rise in first six months, followed by steady decline through the end of the year, erasing almost all of the short-term gains.  

The good news is, the market has temporarily bounced off the bottom. The smoother trendline (blue) suggests a sideways movement within a tight range (220K to $230K). 

The normalized SPSF (bottom chart) demonstrates a similar trend, with the smoother trendline moving sideways between $170 and $180/SF.

Of course, the market needs to stay above the $220K +/- support, breaching which could reopen the wound.   


Note: This analysis covers the City of Minneapolis, not the entire Hennepin County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

Thursday, May 24, 2018

JustAutoValue.com is a Mobile-friendly Pre-owned Auto Valuation Site; No Separate Apps are Needed.

How Mobile-friendly JustAutoValue.com Looks and Works as an App on iPhone
http://www.justautovalue.com/


Most Websites are built on the old web technology so they are not mobile friendly, needing separate Android or iOS Apps. 

JustAutoValue.com is mobile-friendly so it does not require any special Apps. From your smart phone, just access internet and type in the URL as you would from your laptop or desktop and you would be using the site as if it were an App. 

JustAutoValue.com produces simulated pre-owned auto valuations in 30 seconds or less. Try out your own subject vehicle. It's totally FREE and NO login/registration of any sort is required. 80+ Major Make/Models are currently covered. 

Just click on the Model of your choice on our homepage and follow the prompt. If you need help, use 'TRY IT' from the homepage.

JustAutoValue.com is owned and operated by Homequant, Inc.

To Analyze a Sales Population, Consider the Expanded Percentile Curve

(Click on the image to enlarge)
Analysis of Sales Population

1. Instead of just one parameter consider the expanded Percentile curve.
2. 5th to 95th is the most meaningful inliers’ range, extending out to outliers’.

3. So, while studying outliers, consider below the 5th and above the 95th percentile.

4. When the time series is extended (e.g., sales between 1/2017 and 3/2018 are used here), sales must be time-adjusted.

5. Since growth rates vary by the market, time adjustment factors (coefficients) must be derived as such (e.g., 6% in this example).

6. If you have to choose one parameter, it must be the Median, as it is less prone to outliers (Average is heavily influenced by outliers, distorting the analysis).

7. In this example, Median ASP and Median Bldg SF are mutually exclusive (may be connected to get a general idea of the ASP/SF, but not for any serious analysis).

8. In order to analyze ASP/SF, create the variable and run percentile stats on it (auto-regressive).

9. Ideally, ASP should be modeled (regression) and the resulting output variable (smoother and statistically more significant) used in all analyses, including defining/removal of outliers.

I picked the above table from TownAnalyst.com as I own and operate it, to avoid having to deal with any copyright issues. My TownAnalyst site is totally free (no strings) and requires no login or registrations whatsoever. Please use the site/system that works best for you.

http://www.townanalyst.com/

homequant@gmail.com    

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

HomeYada.com is a Mobile-friendly Home Valuation Site; No Separate Apps are Needed.

How Mobile-friendly HomeYada.com Looks and Works as an App on iPhone
http://www.homeyada.com/

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Most Websites are built on the old web technology so they are not mobile friendly, needing separate Android or iOS Apps. 

HomeYada.com is mobile-friendly so it does not require any special Apps. From your smart phone, just access internet and type in the URL as you would from your laptop or desktop and you would be using the site as if it were an App. 

HomeYada.com produces simulated home valuations in 60 seconds or less. Try out your own subject property. It's totally FREE and NO login/registration of any sort is required. 80+ Major Home Markets are currently covered. 

Just click on the market of your choice on our homepage and follow the prompt. If you need help, use 'TRY IT' from the homepage.

HomeYada.com is owned and operated by Homequant, Inc.

A 3D Contour Diagram is an Excellent Way to Present Location Values

(Click on the image to enlarge)

A 3D Contour Diagram is an excellent way to present location values. One picture tells the story, without having to toggle around the map. It can be rotated to see the peaks and valleys from different angles and perspective. Moreover, it can be enhanced to build full visual location econometrics with live modeling on the screen.

The top diagram represents the Los Angeles County – some of the highest location values along the Pacific Coast, with Malibu-Santa Monica-Manhattan Beach corridor leading the way, followed by Beverly Hills-Westwood-Century City triangle and Pasadena-San Marino-Arcadia stretch on the east (inland).  

The bottom diagram represents the Miami-Dade County. Again, some of the highest location values are along the Miami Beach-Key Biscayne (Atlantic) shores, followed by Coconut Grove-Coral Gables-South Miami on the west (inland). The value curve declines fast further west past University Park.

I picked the above contours from LocValu.com as I own and operate it, to avoid having to deal with any unintended copyright issues. My LocValu site is totally self-directed (no modeled values), totally free (no strings), and requires no registration/log-ins whatsoever. Please use the site/system that works best for you.

http://www.locvalu.com/
homequant@gmail.com 

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Miami Housing Market Shows Bullish Trend

(Click on the image to enlarge)
Generally, these two charts - normal and normalized - project very similar trends. In this case, they are at considerable variance.

The Monthly Median Price trend has tapered, remaining directionless since October, without forming any meaningful support. On the other hand, the normalized SPSF continues a bullish upward trend, breaking out of the $185-$195/SF congestion, even eclipsing the $195 resistance.

Although tracking the Monthly Median Sale Prices is the industry standard, it must be studied alongside the normalized trend to take informed business decisions. Moving average is another option as it provides a level of smoothing. When the time series is extended (24+ months), quarterly provides a better basis. 

While constructing the SPSF trend, one must make sure that the Bldg SF (heated) remains well within the 4-5% margin. In the Miami example, the monthly SFs ranged between 1,563 and 1,668, around the overall median of 1,619 (well within the 4% range).

Note: This analysis covers City of Miami, not Miami-Dade county. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

Young-adult Fiction. Free. No Registration.
https://take-it-to-bed.blogspot.com/

Monday, May 21, 2018

Homebuyers Must Demand to See the Comps (Contributing to the Valuation of the Subject) – Spatially

Remember: Comparable Sales ("comps") from the other side of a major artery or from the lakefront (if the subject is not) can be significantly pricier, thus improperly inflating the value of the subject property you might be interested in. 

So, ask your real estate salesperson to show the comps, contributing to the valuation of the subject property, spatially (on the map)!

The same idea is equally applicable to the existing homeowners planning to challenge their property tax assessment. Ask your Tax Assessor to show the comps (that contributed to the market value leading to the assessed value of your home) on the map. 

Since Assessors (of larger jurisdictions) heavily depend on Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) based on statistical algorithm, this is often a serious problem. If their valuation is strictly AVM-based, it would be difficult for them to decompose the valuation, comp-wise. Conversely, if you are shown the comps on the map, you could easily relate to them, leading to total or partial acceptance or rejection, nonetheless authoritatively. 

Here is a snapshot of spatial comps: 

(Click on the image to enlarge)
Comp #7 is lakefront while the subject isn't so it cannot be a contributing comp. Similarly, #1, 8 and 10 could come from an incompatible neighborhood, potentially skewing the valuation as well. 

I picked the spatial graphic from Homequant.com as I own and operate it, to avoid having to deal with any copyright issues. My Homequant site is totally self-directed (no modeled values), totally free (no strings), and requires no login or registration whatsoever. Please use the site/system that works best for you.


Sunday, May 20, 2018

Los Angeles Housing Market Loses Momentum, Moves Sideways

(Click on the image to enlarge)
Since April, 2017 – save the October outlier – the Monthly Median Sale Prices remained range-bound between $775K and $825K, without any upside momentum. Of course, this pause was widely expected after LA's V-shape recovery since the bottom of the last recession.

The normalized trend (bottom chart) is in tandem as well, staying within a tight range of $550 to $600/SF, with October being the outlier. 

Considering that the LA market has failed to show any upside momentum for over a year now, it needs to stay above the $750K support absorbing the rate hikes; or else, it risks facing significant downside potential.

Note: This analysis covers the City of Los Angeles, not the entire Los Angeles County.

homequant@gmail.com
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