Sunday, May 27, 2018

Charlotte Housing Market Shows Green Shoots after a Sharp Drop

(Click on the image to enlarge)
The Charlotte housing market has started to turn around after a short and sharp decline. Obviously, the sharp decline in October (#10) was one-off (could be weather-related, aftermath of the two major storms). In fact, both trendlines, including the 2-month Moving Average, ignore (smooth out) the large drop.

The normalized Price per SF chart (bottom) more or less mimics the primary trend. A similar October drop proves that the decline was anything but size-related. Of course, the trendline meaningfully smoothes out the drop followed by the sharp v-shaped recovery, though backing the continued upswing. 

Again, the Monthly Median Sale Price trend must be studied alongside the normalized Monthly Median Price per SF, as the latter works as a meaningful validation tool. If the latter diverges from the former, any possible general shift in sizes must be investigated (i.e., if the buyers are switching to smaller or larger homes, leading to a structural shift in demand). 

Note: This analysis covers the City of Charlotte, not the entire Mecklenburg County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com
       

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