Saturday, May 5, 2018

Orlando Housing Market Starts to Taper

(Click on the image to enlarge)

While the monthly median price is a standard practice to capture housing market trends, seasonally unadjusted data (as in above charts), however, can produce somewhat erratic trends. For instance, the October drop is somewhat unexplainable. At any rate, the trend has been range-bound between $225K and $235K.

The normalized (Median Sale Price per SF or SPSF) trend (bottom chart) is often much smoother, hence more explainable. While it shows a small uptick in recent months,  it has nonetheless ranged between $130 and $135. 

The recent uptick has resulted from a steady decline in Bldg SF. Specifically, the Median Bldg SF steadily declined from 1,725 (July-Aug) to 1,666 (Dec-Feb), thus spiking the Median SPSF. In other words, buyers generally opted for slightly smaller houses during this period. Of course, when adjusted for this variance, the median price reverts to a flat-line.

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