Thursday, May 31, 2018

Tampa Housing Market Resumes Upswing after a Healthy Consolidation

(Click on the image to enlarge)

As expected, the primary Monthly Median Sale Price trend has been very volatile - sharp rise, fall and reversal in a year or so. Of course, the 2-Mo Moving Average trendline (blue) rejects the linear drop as well as the exponential reversal. The good news is, the market managed to shrug off the decline and resumed the upswing. The bad news is, it all happened without a sideways consolidation.

The normalized Sale Price per SF trend (bottom chart) is however all-good, even negating the bad news of the primary trend. It has all the qualities of a good market - nice 45 degree growth, followed by an extended range-bound ($132 to $136) sideways and a welcome uptick. The 2-Mo MA trendline (blue) somewhat moderates the final uptick. 

Of course, we have to wait and see how Tampa negotiates the rising rate environment as it is a FHA and GSE market, by and large.
   
Note: This analysis covers the City of Tampa, not the entire Hillsborough County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

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