Saturday, June 9, 2018

Atlanta Housing Market Moves Sideways after Big Rise and Drop

- Intended for Students/New Analysts to Learn Analytics -

(Click on the image to enlarge)

After shooting up from $200K to $318K in mere four months, the median has retraced more or less back to the point of origin, potentially leaving thousands under-water. Since August (#8), the trend has been sideways, remaining range-bound between $200K and $220K. The December (#12) bump could be explained by the preceding and succeeding lower lows - amply smoothed out by the 2-Mo Moving Average trendline. 

The formation of a double top (like M) is bearish, alerting traders to look for breaching a major support to initiate short positions. Conversely, the double bottom (like W) is bullish, reversing a downtrend, thus alerting traders to wait for a breakout to initiate long positions.

The normalized trend (bottom chart) is in tandem as well. The recent trend has been sideways between $120/SF and $130/SF. Both trendlines are ignoring the big drop in September (#9) as somewhat overdone. If the market retests the September low of $110, another double top would be in the offing, potentially sending the market in a free fall again.   

Atlanta, be steady; stay above the $120 support...

Note: This analysis covers the City of Atlanta, not the entire Fulton County.

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.

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