Wednesday, June 6, 2018

San Antonio Housing Market Arrests Fall, Reverses Sharply

- Intended for Students/New Analysts to Learn Analytics -

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The primary trend - Median Sale Price - reveals significant weakness as the price falls below $190K, the recent originating point of growth, despite having formed a double bottom. The double bottom (W formation) tends to be truly bullish when it forms above the originating growth point (see the Houston case). Even the 2-Month Moving Average does not reject the October (#10) fall. One positive point here is that the second leg of recovery remains consistent, i.e., doesn't fall below the first.

The normalized trend (bottom chart) tells a different story. In addition to forming a bullish double bottom, the recent reversal retests the August (#8) high, proving strong market internals. Both trendlines are confirming the reversal as well. In fact, in equity market, most technicians would fit a linear trend to emphasize the growth angle. Again, this departure makes the case that the Monthly Median trend must be studied alongside the normalized trend in order to arrive at a reliable conclusion. 

Note: This analysis covers the City of San Antonio, not the entire Bexar County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.

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