Thursday, June 7, 2018

The Orlando Housing Market Tapers, Moves Sideways

(Click on the image to enlarge)
The Median Price chart shows a tapering trend, moving sideways and remaining range-bound between $225K and $235K. Both trendlines are ignoring the sharp fall in October (#10) as an aberration. I fitted a linear trendline to demonstrate the lack of true linearity of the actual data trend, as evidenced by the low r-squared as well. A good linear trend should have 45 degree angle, with high r-squared, preferably > 0.90. Also, a strong linear trendline should try to connect the lowerline data points, rather than the peak points.  


The normalized trend (bottom chart) is better. The angle of the trendline is slightly steeper with higher r-squared. Yet, it has remained range-bound between $130 and $135, with multiple attempts to break out of the congestion and the resistance. Again, the sideways is being confirmed by the 2-Mo MA trendline. Despite being slightly upsloping, the linear trendline is connecting the topline data points instead of the customary bottomline ones, thus lowering the slope/angle as well as the intensity of possible breakout. 

The Year-over-Year growth rates (normalized) are still healthy: 9.52% (Jan-18/Jan-17) and 9.26% (Feb-18/Feb-17) respectively. 

Note: This analysis covers the City of Orlando, not the entire Orange County. 

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM

President, Homequant, Inc.
homequant@gmail.com

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