Friday, July 6, 2018

Las Vegas Housing vs. Orlando Housing – Who Wins?

- Intended for Students/New Analysts to Learn Analytics -

(Click on the image to enalrge)
After reaching a peak median price of $265K in August 2017, the Las Vegas housing market has been steadily trending down, though reversing sharply in February 2018. If this new trend continues, it would be very bullish with new highs in coming months. Of course, if this reversal turns out to be a "dead cat bounce" the sideways or downside possibilities loom as well. Both trendlines are confirming the rise as well as the fall.

The Orlando Price chart (bottom) shows a tapering trend, moving sideways and remaining range-bound between $225K and $235K in recent months. Nonetheless, the overall trend remains upsloping, with consistent higher highs. Both trendlines are ignoring the sharp fall in October (#10) as an aberration. Any breakout above $240K would be very bullish. 

Of course, there is significant difference between these two markets. Despite tapering lately, the overall Orlando trend has been upsloping, with consistent higher highs. The Las Vegas market, on the other hand, has been steadily trending down since last August, proving nothing but fundamental weakness.  

The Orlando market is the clear winner, with the worst-case scenario being the continued sideways movement. The Las Vegas market has lot more to prove than just one month's reversal.   

- Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.

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