Saturday, July 20, 2019

Case-Shiller Housing Trends – Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami and Tampa

-- Intended for New Analysts and Researchers --

(Click on the image to enlarge)

According to the above Case-Shiller housing indices, the Tampa, FL housing market outperformed the other three Southeastern markets. 

Though the Miami market showed some sensitivity to the falling interest rates in Q4-18 and Q1-19, it's growth has been tapering fast. The reason is quite simple: The Wall Street investors targeted the Miami market ahead of the other SE markets at the bottom of the last recession, causing a sharp V-shape recovery for this market, from 139.09 (1/2012) to 220.69 (12/2016).   

While Atlanta and Charlotte maintained reasonable growth momentum, their sensitivity to the falling interest rates was fairly muted. Tampa, on the other hand, reacted remarkably well to the interest rate scenario, moving sharply up from 212.92 (10/2018) to 218.73 (4/2019). 

Pre-Recession Highs

The Miami housing market has yet to retest the pre-recession high of 279.79 (2/2007). 

Since the Tampa market tends to move in tandem with the Miami market, it has quite a bit more to go before retesting the prior high of 239.00 (5/2006). 

The Atlanta market has been a very different story. While their pre-recession run-up was less than spectacular (climbing from 119.30 on 1/2004 to 136.12 on 4/2007), they showed an exponential post-recession growth, far surpassing the prior high.

Though Atlanta and Charlotte are not the twin cities (250 miles apart), their housing markets are sympathetic twins. Therefore, the Charlotte story mimics Atlanta. Their pre-recession rise from 110.49 (1/2004) to 133.86 (8/2007) was pale compared to the post-recession growth. Both Atlanta and Charlotte are still making higher highs in recent months.

These are seasonally-adjusted indices so the month-over-month comparison is fine. While using the seasonally unadjusted data, compare Mar-2019 with Mar-2018, etc. 

Disclaimer - The author is not advocating the Case Shiller indices listed here. Consult your Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and/or trading strategies for different markets, including housing.

Thank you.

Sid Som, MBA, MIM

President, Homequant, Inc.

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