Sunday, July 21, 2019

Case-Shiller Housing Trends – Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix

-- Intended for New Analysts and Researchers --

(Click on the image to enlarge)

According to the above Case-Shiller indices, the Southwestern US housing markets performed phenomenally well during this period. Lately, Las Vegas has been the national front-runner, outpacing Seattle which held that title until 2017.  Phoenix and Denver produced remarkable growth rates as well. Dallas made an excellent run after the recession but has lost some steam in the recent past.

Between 12-2017 and 12-2018 Las Vegas jumped from 171.66 to 191.19 -- a spectacular growth indeed. During the same period, Phoenix grew from 174.11 to 187.82, while Denver went from 206.19 to 217.51, both of which are way above the national average growth rate. 

While Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix reacted very positively to the declining interest rates in Q4-2018 and Q1-2019, Dallas' response was somewhat lackluster. 

In fact, in Q1-2019, while Dallas started experiencing a slightly declining trend, the other three markets moved sideways, staying in a consolidation mode. If the much-talked-about rate cuts come to fruition in Q3-Q4, 2019, these markets may quickly reverse trends, and swing up again, along with a refinancing bonanza. 

These are seasonally-adjusted indices so the month-over-month comparison is fine. While using the seasonally unadjusted data, compare Mar-2019 with Mar-2018, etc. 

Disclaimer - The author is not advocating the Case Shiller indices listed here. Consult your Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and/or trading strategies for different markets, including housing.

Thank you.

Sid Som, MBA, MIM

President, Homequant, Inc.

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