Friday, July 19, 2019

Case-Shiller Housing Trends – LA, San Diego and San Francisco

-- Intended for New Analysts & Researchers --

(Click on the image to enlarge)

According to the above Case-Shiller Indices, all three California housing markets have been range-bound, moving sideways, for the last one year. 

The Q1-2019 shows some green-shoots but it could be interest rate-related, meaning the fast decline in interest rates in recent months might have encouraged an enhanced activity leading to a short and temporary upswing. 

The most recent month, April-2019, could be an aberration due to the lack of (data) liquidity; as the new data points come in, this sudden spike might be adjusted down.

Nonetheless, the rate of growth in prices in 2017 in all three housing markets was phenomenal. Of course, in terms of the overall growth between Jan-2017 and Apr-2019, San Francisco, as expected, has been leading the way. By the same token, in terms of volatility, San Francisco continues to be the front-runner as well.

These are seasonally-adjusted indices so the month-over-month comparison is fine. While using the seasonally unadjusted data, compare Mar-2019 with Mar-2018, etc. 

Disclaimer - The author is not advocating the Case Shiller indices listed here. Consult your Financial Planner for an appropriate asset allocation model and/or trading strategies for different markets, including housing.

Thank you.

Sid Som, MBA, MIM
President, Homequant, Inc.

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